A little perspective on Bitcoin
Bitcoin Rainbow Chart
Bitcoin’s price through the lens of a long-term logarithmic model.
The long view
BTC / USD · Daily observations
Hover or touch to inspect. Left and Right move through daily observations, then the future model in 30-day steps. Home goes to the first price; End goes to the end of the selected model extension.
Bitcoin calculator
Edit either amount. The other updates instantly.
BTC is rounded to 8 decimals. Market estimates exclude fees.
Rate updated
Next Bitcoin halving
Estimated Block 1,050,000
Estimate uses a 10-minute block target. Mining pace changes the date.
Block snapshot · Block 970,651 ·
Bitcoin network fees
High priority2 sat/vB
Low priority1 sat/vB
Fees updated
What the colors mean
Each color is a step away from the fitted trend. Select a band to highlight it.
A curve, not a crystal ball.
We fit one curve to daily Bitcoin prices in USD. A log scale makes early prices and recent cycles visible together.
The calculation
Age starts at 1 on 3 January 2009. Least-squares regression fits a and b to every available daily observation. Each band is 0.5 residual standard deviations wide; the rainbow spans −2.25 to +2.25 around the curve in natural-log space.
Updated daily
The fit uses completed UTC days. New history can move earlier bands. The quote refreshes each minute. Future bands continue the same formula without adding prices to the fit.
Read it as context
Band names describe distance from this model, not fair value or trading instructions. Prices can leave the rainbow. Its bands are not confidence intervals or a forecast.
Model details
- Daily observations
- 5,896
- History starts
- 18 Aug 2010
- History ends
- 8 Oct 2026
- Historical log-space R²
- 0.9599
- a
- -37.33699284
- b
- 5.60336322
- Residual standard deviation
- 0.69317454
- Largest missing span
- 0 days
Older daily history comes from Blockchain.com; recorded market quotes fill recent gaps. Missing days are not invented.
A few quick answers
Is the rainbow a Bitcoin price prediction?
No. Faded future bands continue today’s fitted curve. They do not contain future prices or guarantee what Bitcoin will do next.
Why use a logarithmic scale?
Equal vertical steps represent equal percentage changes. That keeps Bitcoin’s early prices visible alongside today’s larger dollar values.
What are the halving lines?
They mark the Bitcoin blocks where the mining subsidy halved: 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024. The fourth halving occurred on 20 April 2024 in UTC.
Why can rainbow charts look different?
Sites can use different historical observations, fitting dates, and band widths. This chart shows its own formula and the dates it uses.