Tools / 1Bitcoin
Bitcoin price prediction
Choose a future date and explore a Bitcoin price scenario fitted to historical cycles.
Historical patterns can break. This is a modelled price scenario, not a guaranteed forecast. The range illustrates past model errors; it is not a probability interval.
Price history & future scenarios
USD · LogarithmicHover, tap or use the arrow keys to explore the chart. Swipe sideways to see the whole chart.
Training observations: 843 · 18 Aug 2010 – 13 Oct 2026 · cycle-fit-1.0 · Checked 2026-10-14 20:38 UTC
Observed price: $81,820.23 · 2026-10-14 20:38 UTC
How it works
Our model fits log(price) to log(Bitcoin age) and two damped waves across a 1,461-day cycle. Weekly observations, robust weighting and regularisation limit the influence of extreme days. Future paths start at the latest price; growth and cycle amplitude fade with distance. Cycle length is an assumption, not a known future halving schedule.
The model is fitted in USD. Future fiat values hold the latest available price-pair conversion ratio constant; future exchange rates are unknown. Historical fiat prices are recorded observations.
Download CSV · Bitcoin halving cycle comparison → · Rainbow →Historical one-year tests
Each October origin trains only on prices and halving dates known then. The next October price is held out. These fixed annual tests are retrospective checks, not independent proof of future accuracy.
| Training cutoff | Date | Cycle model (USD) | Observed price (USD) | Absolute price error | Unchanged-price baseline error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2016 | 1 Oct 2017 | $3,738.09 | $4,354.16 | 14.1% | 86.0% |
| 1 Oct 2017 | 1 Oct 2018 | $2,486.92 | $6,611.02 | 62.4% | 34.1% |
| 1 Oct 2018 | 1 Oct 2019 | $6,822.54 | $8,307.74 | 17.9% | 20.4% |
| 1 Oct 2019 | 1 Oct 2020 | $10,886.69 | $10,777.92 | 1.0% | 22.9% |
| 1 Oct 2020 | 1 Oct 2021 | $52,391.86 | $43,757.81 | 19.7% | 75.4% |
| 1 Oct 2021 | 1 Oct 2022 | $23,464.31 | $19,427.20 | 20.8% | 125.2% |
| 1 Oct 2022 | 1 Oct 2023 | $27,907.17 | $26,970.43 | 3.5% | 28.0% |
| 1 Oct 2023 | 1 Oct 2024 | $44,976.10 | $63,323.53 | 29.0% | 57.4% |
| 1 Oct 2024 | 1 Oct 2025 | $192,117.92 | $114,034.76 | 68.5% | 44.5% |
| 1 Oct 2025 | 1 Oct 2026 | $60,942.34 | $83,570.96 | 27.1% | 36.5% |